What happened
The United States carried out strikes on Iranian missile launch sites. Iran responded with attacks on American bases in Jordan, and reports emerged of a supertanker catching fire in the Strait of Hormuz after reportedly hitting a mine. The result was immediate: oil prices jumped as much as 2.7 percent on Monday morning alone.
At the time of writing, a barrel of American WTI crude trades close to 86 dollars, while Brent crude sits just under 91 dollars a barrel. Both benchmarks have been on a rollercoaster ride for months now, swinging wildly between relief rallies whenever a ceasefire seems within reach and sharp spikes whenever fighting resumes. Analysts increasingly describe this as the new normal for the region, with little sign of a lasting resolution before well into 2027.
For companies and consumers alike, higher crude prices tend to filter through to fuel costs relatively quickly. Prices at the pump in the Netherlands had eased slightly in the days before this latest flare up, so a reversal would not come as a total surprise.
Shipping traffic keeps shrinking
The renewed escalation makes a diplomatic breakthrough feel further away than ever, and that has direct consequences for maritime trade. Before the conflict began, roughly one in every five barrels of crude oil shipped worldwide passed through the Strait of Hormuz. That figure has collapsed. The International Maritime Organization estimates that around 400 vessels are currently stuck in the Persian Gulf as a result of the near total blockade.
Data provider Kpler reported that only five ships per day made it through the strait over the past weekend, mostly smaller and mid sized vessels still broadcasting their transponder signal. Just days earlier, on Friday, fourteen ships still managed the crossing, including one large tanker sailing out of Qatar. The trend, in other words, is clearly downward, and every new incident chips away further at what little traffic remains.
How to reduce the effect for your business? Please contact team Trasegro.
It is tempting to see this as a story about energy prices alone, but the ripple effects reach much further. Vessels once bound for the Gulf are being rerouted, insurance premiums for ships operating in the region have climbed, and lead times for cargo moving through or near the Middle East have stretched considerably. Businesses that rely on predictable transit times, whether for raw materials, components, or finished goods, are feeling the squeeze.
Why this matters beyond the oil market
Some ports in the wider region remain open and land routes still offer an alternative, but capacity is tight and costs have risen, driven largely by high fuel prices and constrained supply. Companies that built their logistics around Gulf transit are now having to think on their feet, weighing rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope against longer lead times, or exploring different partners and corridors altogether.
This is exactly where a strong, well connected network makes the difference. Knowing which harbors are still functioning, which partners can be trusted under pressure, and which alternative routes actually deliver cargo on time is not something you improvise overnight. It takes years of relationships and a team that stays calm when circumstances are anything but normal.
How to reduce the effect for your business? Please contact team Trasegro.
Staying ahead of a volatile market
Nobody can predict exactly how this conflict will develop, and that uncertainty is precisely the challenge. What businesses can control is how well prepared they are for disruption. Keeping a close eye on developments, building flexibility into supply chains, and working with partners who understand the region are the best tools available right now.
The coming weeks will likely bring more volatility rather than less. Whatever happens next in the Gulf, having a logistics partner who tracks these developments daily and can pivot quickly is worth more than ever.
Trasegro: Anything except standard. Logistics solutions for complex requirements
With a strong focus on personal service and professionalism, Trasegro supports clients in navigating complex logistics challenges with flexible, reliable solutions.
