A Quarter Less Trade with the US
In the first six months of 2026, Dutch goods exports to the United States fell by 25 percent compared to the same period a year earlier, a drop worth 4.3 billion euros. That is not a small dip. It is a structural shift that has been building since the second half of 2025, when the US introduced a general import tariff of 15 percent on goods from the European Union.
The result is visible in the ranking of export destinations. Italy has now overtaken the United States as the fifth largest market for Dutch goods. A year ago, 5.5 percent of Dutch export value went to the US. Today, that share has fallen to 4.0 percent. Meanwhile, exports to Italy grew by 1.2 billion euros, and Spain, currently the seventh destination for Dutch goods, is closing in on the US as well.
For companies that built their sales strategy around the American market, this reshuffling matters. Markets that used to be considered “secondary” in Southern Europe are quietly becoming just as important, or more.
Machinery and Transport Equipment Take the Biggest Hit
Of the 4.3 billion euro decline, 2 billion euros came from lower exports of machinery and transport equipment alone, a drop of 25.8 percent. That makes this category the single largest contributor to the overall decline in absolute terms.
It is not the only sector under pressure. Exports of chemical products fell by 30.5 percent, driven mainly by lower shipments of medicines and pharmaceutical products. Manufactured goods, including medical instruments and prosthetics, dropped by 22.9 percent. All other product groups combined saw a 21.0 percent decline, although the picture varies depending on the specific goods involved.
For manufacturers and exporters in these industries, tariffs are clearly starting to bite. And with the current US import tariff still in place, there is little sign that the pressure will ease on its own in the short term.
Imports from the US Are Rising, for a Different Reason
While Dutch exports to the US are shrinking, imports from the US are moving in the opposite direction. In the first half of 2026, the value of goods imported from the United States rose by 19.0 percent to 27.6 billion euros. But this growth story is less about trade policy and more about geopolitics.
How to navigate this reality? Please contact team Trasegro.
Roughly three quarters of that increase comes from mineral fuels. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of crude oil and oil products, and the US remains a major supplier. Strip out mineral fuels, and import growth from the US drops to a more modest 6.7 percent, a figure that better reflects underlying trade demand rather than energy market volatility.
This split matters for anyone trying to read the trade data correctly. It is not that trade with the US is booming overall. It is that oil prices are doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the import side, while tariffs are doing the opposite on the export side.
What This Means for Your Business
If your company exports machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals or manufactured goods to the US, the current tariff environment is a real cost factor, not a temporary inconvenience. At the same time, growing demand in markets like Italy and Spain suggests there is room to diversify, if your logistics setup can keep up.
That is exactly where flexible planning pays off. Diversifying destinations, rethinking routing, and building buffer into your supply chain can help absorb the impact of shifting trade patterns, whether that shift comes from tariffs, energy prices, or geopolitical tension.
How to reduce the effect for your business? Please contact team Trasegro.
Global trade rarely stands still, and the current reshuffling between the US, Italy and Spain is a good reminder that export strategies need to stay flexible too. Keeping a close eye on where demand is actually growing, rather than where it used to grow, is what separates companies that adapt smoothly from those that get caught out.
Trasegro: Anything except standard. Logistics solutions for complex requirements.
With a strong focus on personal service and professionalism, Trasegro supports clients in navigating complex logistics challenges with flexible, reliable solutions.
What sets Trasegro apart is not just what we do but how we do it. We listen, communicate and act in partnership, responding quickly when it matters most. No one-size-fits-all approach but tailored solutions that fit your reality.
