A new line on the invoice
ETS2 works differently from the original EU emissions trading system. Where the original targets power plants and heavy industry, ETS2 targets the fuel suppliers themselves. They will have to buy allowances for every tonne of CO2 their fuels emit when burned. And those costs? They roll straight downhill, through pump prices and into freight rates.
The numbers tell the story. A heavy truck burning 30 litres of diesel per 100 kilometres will pay around 12 cents extra per litre at a carbon price of 45 EUR per tonne. That adds 3.6 cents per kilometre in fuel costs alone. If carbon prices climb to 60 EUR per tonne, as many analysts expect, the extra cost rises to 4.8 cents per kilometre. Multiply that across a long-haul network running thousands of kilometres a week, and the impact quickly becomes substantial.
The pain is not spread evenly. Urban distribution with limited mileage gets off relatively lightly. International heavy-duty operations, ADR dangerous goods, and temperature-controlled pharmaceuticals carry a heavier burden. These are exactly the shipments where flexibility in routing and consolidation is hardest to find.
How to reduce the effect for your business? Please contact team Trasegro.
LNG: not the escape route it once seemed
A few years ago, LNG trucks looked like a smart hedge. Cleaner image, lower fuel costs, regulatory goodwill. Reality has been less kind. Independent research shows that LNG trucks deliver less than 10% greenhouse gas savings compared to modern diesel once you account for methane leakage and upstream emissions. Some spark-ignition gas trucks actually produce comparable or slightly higher total emissions than their diesel counterparts.
And here is the kicker: ETS2 covers natural gas just like it covers diesel. So LNG operators get hit with the same carbon costs, without the environmental upside. The bridge technology is starting to look more like a stranded asset, especially as battery electric and hydrogen trucks edge closer to cost competitiveness.
What actually works
The temptation is to wait, watch, and accept higher costs when they arrive. Trasegro takes a different view. The smartest shippers we work with are already pulling the levers they can control.
Operational efficiency is the obvious starting point. Route optimisation software that minimises distance and avoids congestion lowers fuel use. Driver training focused on smooth acceleration, steady speeds, and reduced idling typically delivers 5 to 7% better fuel economy. Those numbers become more valuable, not less, as carbon costs rise.
Beyond the driver’s seat, the basics still matter. Tyre pressures, the right lubricants, consistent maintenance. None of it sounds glamorous, but combined with smarter consolidation and higher load factors, it offsets a meaningful share of ETS2 costs without major capital investment.
Carrier selection just got more interesting
ETS2 is going to redraw the carrier landscape. Operators investing in electric trucks for short-haul routes and hydrogen vehicles for longer corridors will start to gain a real cost advantage over diesel-only fleets. Forward-thinking shippers are already weighing emissions performance in their tender criteria. A slightly higher rate today for low-emission transport may turn out to be the cheaper choice tomorrow.
This is not about picking one technology and rolling it out everywhere. Battery electric trucks shine on predictable, short-distance city work. Conventional diesel remains essential for many long-haul ADR movements where the alternatives are simply not ready. The trick is matching the right technology to each lane. One size, as ever, does not fit all.
Rail and water back in the picture
ETS2 also strengthens the case for modal shift. Intermodal solutions can cut emissions by 30 to 60% compared to road-only transport and shave 20 to 40% off costs on the right routes. As diesel gets more expensive under ETS2, the maths becomes harder to ignore, particularly on longer flows between major economic centres.
But modal shift is never a copy-paste exercise. Chemical shipments need ADR-compliant rail wagons and trained personnel. Pharmaceuticals demand GDP-validated temperature control across every mode. Time-critical spare parts may not tolerate longer transit times or stricter schedules. The art is in segmenting your flows intelligently, moving what fits to lower-emission modes while keeping road transport where it genuinely earns its place.
What to do in 2025 and beyond
Waiting for 2028 is not a plan. With monitoring already starting in 2025, the time to act is now. Start by establishing a clear emissions baseline for your main lanes, broken down by vehicle type, distance, and cargo category. You cannot manage what you do not measure, and visibility is the foundation for every decision that follows.
Contracts deserve a fresh look too. Many existing agreements have fuel surcharge mechanisms that simply do not account for ETS2, or that fail to reward efficiency improvements. Renegotiate the important ones. Introduce transparent carbon cost components and shared-savings models. Some shippers are even exploring ETS2 allowance futures as a hedging instrument, although that comes with its own financial and legal considerations.
Pilots are powerful. You do not need to commit your whole network to electric or hydrogen tomorrow. Partner with carriers testing these technologies on suitable routes. Early experience reveals what works, what does not, and where the real opportunities sit. It also signals to your customers and stakeholders that you are taking decarbonisation seriously.
How to reduce the effect for your business? Please contact team Trasegro.
Why the right partner matters
Navigating ETS2 while keeping service quality high for complex cargo is not a job for a generalist. It calls for a freight forwarder that understands ADR, knows GDP inside out, and can stitch together multimodal solutions without dropping the ball on lead times or compliance.
Look for partners who give you real control tower visibility, so you can make routing and modal decisions in real time, based on both cost and emissions data. Strong relationships with forward-looking carriers give you access to new technologies and new capacity. Expertise in consolidation and network design unlocks the efficiency gains. Above all, choose partners who see ETS2 not as a burden but as an opportunity to deliver smarter, more sustainable logistics.
Turning regulation into advantage
ETS2 does not arrive in isolation. Stricter vehicle emissions standards, carbon-differentiated road tolls, expanding low-emission zones. They all point in the same direction. Carbon pricing is becoming a permanent feature of European freight, not a passing experiment.
The transition will not be perfectly smooth. Battery costs, hydrogen infrastructure, political debates about the social impact of ETS2, differences in national fuel taxes. These uncertainties are real. But they make proactive planning more important, not less. Companies that wait for full clarity will find themselves behind those who acted on partial information.
Risk is part of entrepreneurship, and ETS2 is part of the new reality. We are happy to think along with you about what it means for your operation, and how to turn it into an advantage.
Trasegro: logistics solutions for complex requirements
With a strong focus on personal service and professionalism, Trasegro supports clients in navigating complex logistics challenges with flexible, reliable solutions.
